(c) Elif Bayraktar - Shutterstock
Erdoğan strengthens his hand
Last month’s arrest of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political rival, the mayor of Istanbul, on dubious charges has brought hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens out onto the streets.
And what with the series of earthquakes that hit Istanbul this Wednesday, the city is certainly reeling.
Ankara cracks down on criticism
The arrest of Istanbul’s longstanding and popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, is just the latest in a series of moves that have seen freedoms significantly degraded in EU candidate country Turkey over the last ten years.
President Erdoğan appears to be cracking down on dissent and threatening the freedom of the press in response to a sharp decline in his popularity, Turkish economist and political scientist Ahmet Insel tells France’s euradio.
Ahmet Insel, Economist and Political Scientist (in French):
“The opinion polls show that Tayyip Erdoğan's popularity, and above all that of his [AKP] party, is falling. His party's share of the opinion polls is now around 30 per cent. Okay, so it's not a total decline, but it’s 30 per cent, whereas ten years ago this party easily managed to get some 40/45 per cent of the vote. So the CHP has overtaken Erdoğan's party by two or three points in the polls. And other more interesting polls show that 73 per cent of those polled approve of the demonstrations.”
The CHP is the main opposition party, and the one to which Mayor İmamoğlu belongs. And even from jail, İmamoğlu won a landslide victory to become his party’s presidential candidate in the next election, which may not take place until 2028.
Italian journalist and author Marta Ottaviani – whose book on Istanbul, billed as “a subtle and uncompromising analysis of Erdoğan’s Turkey”, came out just a week ago – spoke to Radio 24 last weekend.
Marta Ottaviani, Journalist and Author (in Italian):
“It is clear that this is a political process and clockwork justice to prevent [İmamoğlu] from running in the next presidential election against Erdoğan. Erdoğan has realised that for the first time there is a politician who could beat him – and in a big way too. Up until now, İmamoğlu has always beaten the candidate chosen by Erdoğan. I know Erdoğan well enough to say that he will never accept being beaten directly, especially after having been in power for over 20 years, practically as an absolute overlord.”
Ahmet Insel, Economist and Political Scientist (in French):
“There is nothing independent about the judiciary. Since 2017, following the constitutional changes that were narrowly passed by referendum, we have a hyper-presidential system in which the president of the Republic is head of state, head of government and head of the majority party in parliament, which controls the parliamentary majority, and therefore the high court and, of course, the other courts. He is able to control criminal justice and the public prosecutors are under the direct control of the Ministry of the Interior. He also recently, just under a year ago, appointed someone to the post of prosecutor-general of Istanbul – someone who he had previously appointed as deputy minister of justice. So this guy really is Tayyip Erdoğan's enforcer in his political dealings.”
https://euradio.fr/emission/9x64-geopolis/5vmj-ahmet-insel-la-turquie-en-ebullition
Max Zirngast is an active member of the Austrian Communist Party. Between 2015 and 2019, he spent time in Turkey, studying and working as a journalist. During this time, he was imprisoned for three months in a high-security prison for being a so-called “member of a terrorist organisation”. A broad solidarity campaign in Austria and Germany helped secure his release.
It is in this context that Agora seeks Zirngast’s insight on the current situation. He highlights that Istanbul’s mayor is not the only potential presidential candidate in prison in Turkey, citing at least two other opposition leaders in the same boat. But, he goes on, there are many other political prisoners languishing behind bars there.
Max Zirngast, Party Secretary for the Communist Party of Austria (in German):
“In addition, there are intellectuals – journalists and academics – who have been imprisoned in recent years or at least arrested, some of whom have left the country. There is now a very large community in exile in Germany, but also in many other European countries and the United States. [This community is] made up of critical voices from Turkey who have left, so to speak, to protect their own lives, but who are then naturally absent as critical voices inside Turkey.”
Zirngast believes this latest wave of protests stems from a growing understanding among the population that if Erdoğan is allowed to stifle or expel all opposition, then his position at the helm could be unshakeable.
https://www.agora.at/news/detail/demokratie-in-der-tuerkei-zwischen-anspruch-und-realitaet
World puts its head in the sand
So what are all these countries that are currently providing refuge to Turkish political exiles actually doing about this situation?
Not all that much, says Turkish political scientist Ezgi Başaran, who is based at Oxford University’s Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies.
In an interview with The Europeans, Başaran paints a bleak picture of the situation in Turkey – high inflation, an economy in freefall, vast poverty, and the increasingly authoritarian stance being taken by President Erdoğan.
Yet the situation is largely slipping under the international radar owing to the major ongoing geopolitical shift, says Başaran. She argues that Europe has too much on its plate with the war in Ukraine to take a strong stand against Erdoğan’s rising authoritarianism. Meanwhile, with Donald Trump openly admiring the Turkish president, Erdoğan is only gaining in confidence.
Ezgi Başaran, Turkish Political Scientist (in English):
“He’s done pretending, you know? He doesn’t need a façade of theatre of democracy anymore. So, no more concern for optics. We’ve seen just a handful of Western officials saying anything. Ten years ago it would have been incomprehensible to think that the spokesperson of the US secretary of state would come up and say, ‘This is an internal matter’. Because we have Trump there, and one of the favourite politicians of Trump is Mr Erdoğan. He’s actually mimicking Erdoğan on his way to an authoritarian grip. And also, Europe is in a crisis. There’s a war going on, and Turkey will have a central role, I believe. It could be about deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine in the aftermath of a peace agreement. It has the capacity, Turkey, and the manpower to do it. So, everyone is busy in this emergence of a new political order, where Erdoğan is in a climate of impunity and he is dealt a strong hand.”
https://www.europeanspodcast.com/all-episodes/tariffs-turkey-and-unnecessary-trash
Yes, agrees Max Zirngast, and Erdoğan has played that hand well.
Max Zirngast, Party Secretary for the Communist Party of Austria (in German):
“In recent years, Turkey has been very skilful under Erdoğan, very skilful in establishing itself as an international mediator and regional power. In Syria, for example, Turkey plays a major role. For the United States, Turkey is an important partner and an important gateway in the Middle East against Iran for furthering American interests. But also in the matter of Russia and Ukraine, Turkey has successfully established itself as a diplomatic hub in recent years, thereby boosting its international standing.”
The European Committee of the Regions passed a resolution on 3 April strongly condemning the arrest and detention of local opposition leaders in Turkey and calling on the Commission’s high representative to impose some form of sanctions on the country in response to its “continued backsliding on fundamental rights”.
At a debate on enlargement in the Committee the day before, the EU’s commissioner for enlargement, Marta Kos, felt compelled to defend Brussels’ position. Her comments are shared by AMS.
Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement (in English):
“I could speak about Turkey, of course. We notice what is happening there. Therefore, yesterday I announced that I will not go to the Antalya diplomatic forum, and I will not go to Ankara to meet the minister of foreign affairs. But tomorrow we will have a high-level dialogue on the economy. It cannot be that if it's happening what is happening – declining democracy – that we don't speak. The easiest way to deal with somebody is not to speak anymore. But this is not the right way. We have to accommodate the kind of relations we want to have.”
The high-level economic dialogue mentioned by Kos was the first such event to take place since 2019 and was important to both sides, with Turkey the EU's fifth-largest trading partner and the EU Turkey's largest trading partner by far – and main source of foreign direct investment.
Yet Ankara’s refusal to align itself with the EU position on Russia and Ukraine has caused a certain level of friction. Indeed, far from following the bloc’s sanctions policy, Turkey is enabling Moscow to circumvent these sanctions by making itself Russia's second-largest trading partner.
A future in Europe?
In response to the recent crackdown on opposition in Turkey, all meetings of the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee were frozen and Spanish socialist MEP Nacho Sánchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, said that Ankara must align itself with Brussels if it hopes for EU accession.
So where are we with regards to Turkey’s accession prospects?
Well, the Parliament’s own-initiative report on Turkey, which is due to be voted on at the plenary session in early May, highlights the fact that although Turkey has been an official candidate country since 1999, it has made few inroads towards meeting the requirements of EU accession – particularly in the areas of democracy, human rights and freedoms.
Yet according to Milen Keremedchiev, Bulgaria’s former deputy minister of foreign affairs, Ankara’s apparent desire for EU membership may be somewhat disingenuous. He is talking to BNR.
Milen Keremedchiev, Bulgaria’s Former Deputy Foreign Minister (in Bulgarian):
“Turkey continues to ‘feign’ a desire for EU membership because it is evident that it is currently proving quite skilful at balancing its policies and economic interests – working with Russia, China, Iran, the US and the EU.”
On the other hand, some believe that Brussels continues to dangle the carrot of EU membership in order to balance its own policies and economic interests. André Pereira Matos, assistant professor of European Studies at Portugal’s Universidade Aberta, for one.
Matos, who specialises in the EU, Turkey and the Middle East and takes a particular interest in democracy and human rights, tells Renascença that while a change in Turkey’s EU accession status is unlikely, it is not entirely impossible.
André Pereira Matos, Assistant Professor of European Studies (in Portuguese):
“We have seen a European Union that has been very reactive and even, in a way, impulsive. So who's to say that the European Union won't make a change with regard to enlargement to Turkey – for reasons related to Russia, energy and security? If you ask me whether I think this is likely to happen, no, I don't think so. But we have to remember that, even if full membership seems unlikely in the short term, there may be initiatives to strengthen cooperation in certain areas, such as trade, security or energy.”
As a NATO ally and EU neighbour, no one can deny the vital role Turkey plays in EU security. Not forgetting the fact that, with more than three million refugees currently contained on Turkish soil, Europe has absolutely no desire to poke the bear.
Mustafa Celik, a Turkish expat in Estonia, discusses this along with other aspects of the situation unfolding in his homeland in a conversation with Kuku Raadio.
Mustafa Celik, Turkish Expat in Estonia (in Estonian):
“We now have a young generation who have grown up almost exclusively under this ruling party. The majority of these protestors are in this younger age group. They are students, most of them even from quite wealthy universities. This is surprising as their lives are not so bad; they are not facing economic crisis or anything like that. But they want a better future. That's what they are fighting for. At the same time, President Erdoğan is a very strong opponent. And we can see that there is support for him in Europe. Indeed, it is useful [for Europe] that Erdoğan is leading the Turkish regime because he is holding back refugees and not sending them to Europe. This kind of security guard is pretty handy for them.”
https://kuku.pleier.ee/uudised/turgi-keeruline-tulevik-presidendil-on-euroopas-tugev-seljatagune
The situation can only be described as complicated, with wide-ranging and overlapping political interests at play. And while the EU may be genuinely concerned about the state of human rights and democracy in Turkey, a range of other pressing issues could lead the bloc to take a more ‘pragmatic’ stance towards Istanbul’s human rights violations and autocratic political regime.
Nahide Deniz is the Bulgarian News Agency's Istanbul correspondent. She is in no doubt that Brussels is attempting not to fall off this political tightrope, as she tells our colleagues at BNR.
Nahide Deniz, Istanbul Correspondent for the BTA (in Bulgarian):
“Brussels' behaviour in this case is related to the new European security concept. It is no secret that Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and is the largest power in the region, a region that includes the Balkans and Bulgaria. It is an important geopolitical player that Europe simply cannot afford not to take into account. In addition, we have the migrant issue, energy diversification, Ankara's ability to mediate in crises such as the one between Russia and Ukraine, and last but not least, the fact that there is a new master in the White House: Donald Trump.”
So, while the most immediate issue facing many Turkish citizens now is dealing with the aftermath of this week’s earthquakes, the political tremors are far from having abated.