_state_border_guard_service_at_the_ministry_of_the_interior_of_the_republic_of_lithuania__xlarge.jpg "EU faces surge in hybrid threats")
(c) STATE BORDER GUARD SERVICE at the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Lithuania
EU faces surge in hybrid threats
At Halloween, it's not just creepy clowns handing out balloons: it's also one of the many hybrid threats facing the EU right now.
This week's episode focuses on the growing pressure exerted on Europe through hybrid threats, from cyberattacks to helium balloons, as reported by our network of European radio stations and the Euranet Plus fact-checking team.
The hybrid hydra
Europe is currently facing a monster with many faces: hybrid threats. These are coordinated, planned activities carried out with the intention of harming our continent.
Over the past two months, several countries have reported deliberate disruptions to EU air traffic mainly caused by Russian agents. This phenomenon continues to accelerate, with a dozen member states recently reporting mysterious drone incursions. For example, on Wednesday (29 October), Belgium said that drones had been spotted flying near military installations.
The list of malicious activities is extensive, said Barbara Gallo, head of hybrid threats in the European External Action Service. During an exchange with MEPs from the Security and Defence committee at the end of September, she listed the militarisation of everything from food to energy to migration, as well as cyberattacks, information manipulation, electoral interference, acts of sabotage, disruption of satellite communications, and the list goes on.
Barbara Gallo, Head of Division Hybrid Threats and Cyber, European External Action Service (in English):
“Looking over the last year, on year and a half, we have seen a further intensification of Russian hybrid activities countries, Russia has become more aggressive, more violent, and more reckless in its action. […] Looking back at the last weeks, we have seen this trend escalating even further […]. These high-visibility incidents are not isolated. Again, they are part of a broader pattern of Russian activities. Regardless of how the situation evolves in Ukraine, these activities are expected to continue and probably grow.”
Countries on the EU's eastern flank remain on high alert. On Tuesday, the Polish army reported intercepting a Russian aircraft suspected of conducting a reconnaissance mission in international airspace over the Baltic Sea. In September, three Russian military aircrafts violated Estonian airspace.
Following this incident, Kuku Raadio asked the country's foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, what Russia was trying to achieve with such manoeuvres.
Margus Tsahkna, Foreign Minister of Estonia (in Estonian):
"The goal is multifaceted. First, to test NATO to see if NATO can respond physically. This test failed from Putin's point of view, because NATO took off and controlled the situation. The second goal is to test the unity of allies at the political level. This is an important issue for Putin – to divide us, to strain relations between Europe and the United States. He keeps explaining to President Trump that Europe is weak, Europe can't do anything, Europe is pointless, and the US has to deal with it if they want to establish a new order in Europe."
https://kuku.pleier.ee/uudised/venemaa-lennukite-tungimine-eestisse-on-jarjekordne-putini-test
Russia's goal is also to erode our support for Ukraine, as well as to weaken our democratic institutions and threaten the cohesion of our societies.
Balloon mob
In fact, this week, another such incident occurred in Lithuania, when a dozen balloons carrying contraband cigarettes were spotted, in this case from Belarus. This phenomenon is nothing new: according to the country’s State Border Guard Service, 546 balloons have already been intercepted this year. These incursions repeatedly and significantly disrupt the country’s air traffic.
Vilnius has regularly been the target of hybrid attacks from Belarus, including migrant smuggling supported by Minsk.
On Monday evening, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council António Costa denounced this incursion as a hybrid threat, warning Belarus against further incidents. Von der Leyen stated that these actions provide “yet another reason” to accelerate Europe’s flagship projects, the Eastern Flank Watch and the European Drone Defence Initiative.
Meanwhile, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė has called on the EU to impose further sanctions on Belarus. Of course, Lithuania can already take action to counter further hybrid threats – this is, after all, EU member states’ primary task, as they are responsible for their national security.
So why should the EU get involved? Paulius Saudargas, a Lithuanian MEP and member of the centre-right EPP group, explains to Žinių radijas.
Paulius Saudargas, Member of the European Parliament – EPP, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“Yes, we as a state can close the borders – and this also works and puts economic pressure on the regime. But there is a whole range of measures which, if adopted by the European Union against Lukashenko's regime, would be a really powerful lever.”
According to him, Brussels is receptive to these requests.
Foreign minister Kęstutis Budrys is also optimistic after the EU’s statements of support and solidarity this week. He told Žinių radijas that the next step was now to adopt new sanctions against Belarus.
Kęstutis Budrys, Foreign Minister of Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“Lithuania has already submitted its proposals to the European Commission on how it envisages moving forward, in terms of both the sanctions regime itself — that is, the definition of what constitutes grounds for imposing sanctions — and specific proposals for whom they should be imposed.”
He said he expects the results to be available by the next EU summit, scheduled for the end of November.
Submerged spies
Russian forces are reportedly using secret bases to monitor NATO activities and deploy surveillance drones. One of these bases may well be an Estonian shipwreck in international waters of the Baltic Sea. According to an investigation by several German media, Russian agents have been using the shipwreck to direct drones and underwater reconnaissance robots in order to identify NATO naval traffic. Security expert Raivo Vare explains on Kuku Raadio that these activities at sea are more wide-ranging because they are less visible.
Raivo Vare, Security Expert (in Estonian):
“The problem is that these “shadow men” operate more underwater than above water. Above water, they tend to be disguised as civilians. Or they stay in international waters, which is very common practice. From there, they listen in, send out drones and do everything else. It is very difficult to take action, because we know that jurisdictional issues are very important in international waters. Underwater, we would literally have to catch them red-handed in order to take effective action. Or else, they use passing ships or research vessels... It is practically impossible to stop them, because the territory where the [wrecked] ship is located is extraterritorial.”
https://kuku.pleier.ee/uudised/raivo-vare-venemaal-on-merel-kasutada-laanest-parit-tippaparatuur
Cyberattacks & hacktivists
Cyberattacks are another key element of hybrid threats. While they can target critical infrastructure, such as power grids and hospitals, most of them simply aim to disrupt online services and thus erode public confidence. Europe is the region most affected by “DDoS” (distributed denial-of-service) attacks, which involve flooding a server or network with requests to overload it.
Bruno Frattasi, who leads the Italian National Agency for Cybersecurity, gives the lowdown on just how bad things are to our colleagues at Radio 24.
Bruno Frattasi, Director General of the National Cybersecurity Agency (ACN) (in Italian)
“We are attacked almost daily, even today. […] As we speak, you are unaware that I am receiving messages from my office informing me of ongoing DDoS attacks by a pro-Russian group.”
According to a report published this month by ENISA, the European agency responsible for cybersecurity, 77 per cent of reported incidents are DDoS attacks, most of which are carried out by hacktivists, pro-Russian individuals with limited technical skills. 38 per cent of their attacks are on European public administrations; transport is second with 7.5 per cent, with some notable incidents recently, such as attacks on major airports like Brussels that caused delays and cancellations.
Fact checking
The spread of disinformation and misleading information designed to manipulate public opinion is also increasing in Europe. This kind of hybrid threat, which is all about controlling political discussion and radicalising people on controversial issues, was the focus of a fact-checking report recently published by Euranet Plus. It is therefore my pleasure to welcome Nina Lamparsky, a member of our fact-checking team, here today. Hello Nina, welcome!
Nina
Hello. Thank you for having me.
So, with your team of experts, you've established that foreign disinformation campaigns are on the rise across Europe. How did this happen?
Nina
Watchdogs and EU officials say these operations are getting more complex and harder to detect. The Atlantic Council warns Russia is escalating its hybrid war, adding cyberattacks and sabotage operations to a flood of this information. China and Iran are also stepping up, deploying AI-generated videos to meddle in EU affairs. Europe's diplomatic server says hostile actors keep changing tactics, using new technology to get around restrictions.
So who’s behind these campaigns?
Nina
State broadcasters like Russia's RT are no longer the main spreaders of disinformation and propaganda. Force information now reaches huge audiences through platforms like TikTok and Telegram and fake news websites disguised as genuine brands.
And what are they trying to achieve?
Nina
The aim is to erode trust, undermine media credibility, and deepen social divides. And according to latest polls, the plan is working. A recent EU survey found nearly nine in 10 Europeans worry about fake news and online manipulation.
Last month's elections in Moldova clearly showed us the issues at stake: President Maya Sandu accused Moscow of using priests, bot farms and dodgy online operators to influence the vote.
Nina
Similar tactics have appeared elsewhere in Europe: Pro-Russian messages on dating apps in Bulgaria Russia, Kremlin-linked graffiti in Vienna, and coffins placed under the Eiffel Tower in Paris. German police warn that Russian operatives are trying to recruit spies through TikTok and chat apps, luring them with small, seemingly harmless jobs.
So, are we in Europe giving ourselves the ability to defend and prevent this?
Nina
Brussels has brought in tough new laws like the Digital Services Act and the world's first binding framework on AI to make platforms act against the torrent of this information. The Commission has also announced a media resilience program to help countries cope. But experts warn the fight is uneven. This information is quick and cheap to make, while checking and debunking it takes far longer. The greater danger, analysts say, is not that people believe every false story, but that they stop believing anything at all.
Thanks for the report, Nina. That's a pretty negative note to end with, so I’d like to add that you can trust our info! All our news and articles are written by impartial, experienced journalists, and are checked and double-checked!
Join us again next week for a new episode of Panorama.