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Europe holds its breath as Hungary gears up to vote
On 12 April, Hungarians will vote in what could prove to be an era-defining parliamentary election. But will they choose to stick or twist?
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz Party came to power in a landslide victory 16 years ago, just six years after his country joined the European Union. Since then, they have held onto power comfortably, rewriting the constitution and controlling the media landscape within Hungary, while really putting the cat among the pigeons at a European level.
Growing distrust
The 2026 edition of CPAC Hungary, a now-annual conference of conservative forces from across the globe, took place in Budapest on 21 March. At it, Orbán and his allies criticised Brussels, promoted national sovereignty and rallied eurosceptic forces.
Recent reports from media and political sources raise even more questions. While claims that Péter Szijjártó, the Hungarian foreign minister, may have leaked details of important EU meetings to Russia have not been officially confirmed, in an interview with Žinių Radijas, chief advisor to the President of Lithuania Deividas Matulionis says that he cannot rule out the possibility.
Deividas Matulionis, Chief Advisor to the President of Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“First of all, the relevant EU institutions should provide their assessment. It would not come as a surprise to me, but as of today I cannot say with 100 per cent certainty that it is true. However, considering Hungary’s current position, which can at times come as an unpleasant surprise, anything is possible. It is quite difficult to imagine that 30 or 40 years ago, Hungary was something of a beacon of freedom – there was the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, and later the country went on to implement some of the most decisive reforms in terms of both democracy and the market economy when the Soviet bloc was collapsing. Now, however, it has shifted towards a position that is, I would say, clearly divisive. We find that quite shocking.”
The sheer level of distrust is prompting discussions about restricting Hungarian access to sensitive information, with former Lithuanian foreign minister Antanas Valionis accusing Hungary of trying to bring down the Union from within.
Antanas Valionis, Lithuania’s Former Minister of Foreign Affairs (in Lithuanian):
“Szijjártó hardly ever leaves Moscow – he is constantly travelling there, constantly in talks. […] Szijjártó and Orbán are, in fact, allies of Russia – one might say [Hungary is] a Trojan horse within the European Union, sent, so to speak, to demoralise it, weaken it and undermine it, leaving some kind of, I don’t know, free trade arrangement in place of the EU.”
Who is Tisza?
For this reason, rarely has a national election drummed up as great a sense of anticipation, or apprehension, abroad.
The centre-right, pro-European Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, is now the main opposition force in Hungary. And, in an interview with France’s euradio, Matthieu Boisdron – a Central European specialist and a lecturer in contemporary history at the University of Nantes – dares to suggest that an opposition candidate might finally be in a position to unseat Viktor Orbán.
But, he is asked, what does Magyar actually stand for? Boisdron acknowledges that there is no major break with Orbán in sight on any front, but underlines that Tisza does bring something new to the table.
Matthieu Boisdron, Lecturer in Contemporary History at the University of Nantes (in French):
“In terms of economic policy or social policy, there is no real break. Indeed, it is not entirely clear what [Péter Magyar] is proposing. What he does promise, however, is to resume meaningful discussions with the European Union and, in effect, to bring Hungary out of its isolation by ousting the current government – which is, incidentally, rightly regarded as corrupt, as we have seen in recent scandals – and to effectively return decision-making power to the people and restore a measure of democracy to this country, which is currently a dysfunctional democracy.”
So, is this election also, in a way, a referendum on Hungary’s place within the EU?
Matthieu Boisdron, Lecturer in Contemporary History at the University of Nantes (in French):
“If you want to look at it like that. That is to say that these issues are not, I think, the main concern for Hungarian voters, who will first and foremost look at how much they have in their wallets, at inflation, and at the level of their social benefits. These things are what really matter to them. But yes, indeed, Hungary’s European partners do view this election in that light.”
Luxembourg’s 100,7 has spoken in Budapest to András Kádár, co-chair of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee for human rights. Kádár notes that the tide does seem to be turning, with more and more Hungarians speaking out against the Orbán regime.
Tisza’s very wide-ranging election manifesto is designed to appeal, he explains, to a broad coalition of voters, but many Tisza voters will have one thing in common.
András Kádár, Co-Chair of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee (in English):
“So, I think the strongest point of Mr Magyar's agenda is the anti-corruption [part] and he has a very diverse voter base. So we have to understand that a lot of people will vote for him who don't agree with each other on a lot of issues. It's a very diverse group. The one thing that this group agrees on – from liberal left to sometimes far right, I think, among Tisza voters – is that the extent of corruption is unbearable. How the prime minister's closest friends and family members have become increasingly enriched while the country is struggling economically. I think this is a common denominator.”
But Viktor Orbán has always been good at uniting people against a common ‘enemy’, adds Kádár, whatever that enemy may be.
András Kádár, Co-Chair of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee (in English):
“There's always an enemy. In the very beginning it was the IMF, and it was then George Soros who was told by the government to try to undermine European and Christian values by flooding Europe with refugees. Then it was the LGBTIQ community, and Brussels imposing its gender propaganda on Hungary and threatening our children. And now it's Ukraine.”
So, let’s start with the LGBTQI community. The Europeans spoke last week with Hungarian campaigner and novelist Krisztián Marton. They asked him how hopeful he was that a Hungary under Magyar would be a less homophobic place to live.
Krisztián Marton, LGBTQI Campaigner and Novelist (in English):
“I think they will definitely be less homophobic and won't weaponise homophobia and won't target the community. But I also fear that they won't make actual efforts to repair the damage that the Orbán regime caused. And I think that this will be a topic that they will continuously avoid or ignore. Because I understand that in order to gain this mass following, they had to stay away from controversial and dividing topics. [...] I don't see them erasing any of the discrimination laws anytime soon. I think when the EU eventually overturns them, they will be like, yeah, we're executing it. Because it's not like even if they win, it's not like Fidesz and their propaganda is just suddenly going to disappear. If anything, they will just be louder because now they don't have to govern.”
Marton describes the cautious optimism the LGBTQI community is feeling ahead of the upcoming election.
Krisztián Marton, LGBTQI Campaigner and Novelist (in English):
“It's such a mixed bag, because on one hand, there's this immense hope that this will finally happen, that the regime will change. But on the other hand, I don't know, there's this looming fear that this still won't be enough. Even though Tisza is going really strong, it's leading the polls. Who knows?”
https://www.europeanspodcast.com/all-episodes/the-end-of-orban
A call to arms? On the contrary
Nowadays, though, the key selling point of Orbán’s manifesto is Ukraine, and he is leaning on it heavily, claiming that Brussels is trying to drag Hungary into the war. Indeed, fear of war is deterring many Hungarians from voting for the opposition, says Latvijas Radio.
One such is Attila Pupos, a member of Hungary’s disadvantaged Roma community, who could arguably fare better under a Tisza government than they do currently.
Attila Pupos, Hungarian Roma Man (in Hungarian):
“I would be happier if Fidesz stayed in power because, if the others win, if Péter Magyar comes in, there will be war. We know that for sure. I don’t think Magyar is very good. I don't know what the majority of people think, but in my opinion, Orbán would be better.”
In an interview with Kuku Raadio, Martin Roger, undersecretary for political affairs at the Estonian Foreign Ministry, underscores this point.
Martin Roger, Undersecretary at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Estonian):
“The Hungarian prime minister and his party have made opposition to Ukraine their main issue. They are attempting to portray their lack of support for Ukraine and obstruction of certain decisions in the European Union as a guarantee of peace in Hungary. This anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has taken on such enormous proportions that it has become his main hobbyhorse. And I believe all of this will continue until 12 April, when the elections take place.”
Roger is clearly frustrated by the knock-on effects on Europe of what he sees as essentially party politics.
Martin Roger, Undersecretary at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Estonian):
“Right now, we have several important decisions pending: as I mentioned, the 90 billion euros in aid for Ukraine, the 20th package of sanctions, and enlargement, which has stalled. All of these things have come to a standstill because one European leader has decided to make Ukraine the centrepiece of his election campaign.”
All of which is highly beneficial to Russia, of course. And on this subject, as the elections approach, disinformation – already prevalent – is on the rise.
Alexandre Alaphilippe is executive director of EU DisinfoLab, a Belgium-based not-for-profit that seeks to expose disinformation campaigns and foster a stronger information ecosystem. He tells our colleagues at Bulgarian National Radio what the Hungarian opposition is up against.
Alexandre Alaphilippe, Executive Director of EU DisinfoLab (in French):
“In Hungary, there is a combination of factors. There is Russian propaganda. We know there is also very strong support from MAGA for Viktor Orbán’s candidacy. And we also know that Hungary has a media apparatus that is tightly controlled by the current regime. So, is Russia the driving force here? No, there is a constellation of interests at play in the information ecosystem, which can easily be distorted.”
For now, the eyes of Europe – and a certain government across the Atlantic – are keenly focused on Budapest.