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Iran escalation
The recent strikes against Iran have once again highlighted the difficulty Europe has in finding a unified position.
Member states’ initial responses to the US-Israeli initiative ranged from outright rejection of unilateral military action to distant approval of the destruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities, via calls for restraint and dialogue. But as the conflict develops, the bloc’s stance is being forced to evolve.
The European response
So, how united is Europe over this conflict? Kuku Raadio puts this question to Martin Roger, the undersecretary for political affairs at Estonia’s foreign ministry. He underscores the positive outcome: that all 27 member states did eventually agree on a joint statement.
Martin Roger, Estonian Undersecretary for Political Affairs (in Estonian):
“There is no denying that it took quite a long time, and a lot of hard work. But we do have this joint statement. It addresses how we see the threats coming from Iran – the nuclear programme and our efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, the missile technology, the repression... The European Union is pretty unanimous on this. Yes, there are different nuances. Some countries emphasise the threat posed by Iran, others emphasise the need to de-escalate and ease tensions, and return to the negotiating table. There are differences between EU countries in this regard. I won't hide the fact that the bloc’s policy towards the Middle East has always been an area in which it has been difficult to find a common position. But this time, on Sunday, we managed to do so, albeit with certain constraints.”
But Carlos Branco, formerly a high-ranking officer in the Portuguese army and now a Middle East specialist who has published works on Iranian geopolitics, criticises Europe for condemning Iran's response while failing to condemn the joint US-Israeli military operation.
Carlos Branco, Portuguese Expert on the Middle East (in Portuguese):
“Europe is a caricature. These statements by European leaders, first saying that what was happening was very serious and then condemning Iran for attacking US military bases, speaking in veiled terms about how it was attacking [the US and Israel]... Yet it is both strange and significant that I have never heard any comment from European leaders on the fact that this intervention was a clear violation of international law.”
In an interview with Žinių Radijas on Thursday morning, the EU’s defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius pointed out that since Brussels was not consulted by either Israel or the US prior to strikes being launched, it was necessarily playing catch-up. He added that there was little sympathy for the Iranian regime in Europe, but that the bloc was also keen not to see the situation escalate – especially since Europe is very much in the firing line.
Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defence (in Lithuanian):
“Iran has developed its own arsenal of ballistic missiles. It is unclear how many remain, but some of the publicly discussed ballistic missiles developed by Iran can reach distances of over 2,500 kilometres. Geographically, this is from Iran's western borders to practically the centre of Europe. Such missiles could reach their targets.”
In favour of the action
Žygimantas Pavilionis is a Lithuanian MP and the country’s former ambassador to the US. He tells Žinių that the EU’s fondness for firm statements is all well and good, but it isn’t enough. Pavilionis believes there is something to be said for the more active American and Israeli approach if we want to see regime change in Iran.
Žygimantas Pavilionis, Member of the Lithuanian Parliament (in Lithuanian):
“Never in all 47 years of that regime have the people of Iran been so opposed to the ayatollahs. There is the economic collapse that we have seen in the country since the New Year. And those killings certainly did not add to their popularity. I think the idea now is simply to try to eliminate the security apparatus or, as they say, the ‘command-and-control elements’, so that the Iranian people can effectively take power into their own hands. Whether this will work remains to be seen, but I think that this kind of action is necessary, at least to some extent.”
João Vieira Borges, president of the Portuguese Commission for Military History, argues that the US and Israel must put troops on the ground if they are to have any hope of succeeding, definitively, in their mission. He is talking to Renascença.
João Vieira Borges, President of the Portuguese Commission for Military History (in Portuguese):
“It will be very difficult to manage expectations of regime change when we do not have, or when the United States and Israel do not have, troops on the ground. Air power alone will not solve the fundamental issues. The main political objectives were to change the regime and prevent access to nuclear weapons. It therefore looks like we will continue in the same vein. Six months ago, they had already destroyed it all, but we have still returned to war. By this logic, we will be back here in six months. So, either there is a profound change in strategy or these bombardments will be cyclical in nature. At least, as long as this US administration and Netanyahu are in power.”
Support for the wider Gulf region
Commissioner Kubilius also raises the immediate risks faced by the wider Gulf region.
Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defence (in Lithuanian):
“Iran has chosen a strategy of attacking neighbouring countries in the region that have nothing to do with the actions of the United States and Israel. There is a danger that this conflict could spread and escalate.”
Member states have suggested they are prepared to come to the defence of Jordan and the countries of the Persian Gulf against Iran. Ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Countries and their EU counterparts met on Thursday, with EU member states reiterating their solidarity, stressing that the stability of the Gulf region was “intrinsically linked to European and global security”.
Lithuania’s foreign minister Kęstutis Budrys underscores this point in a conversation with Žinių Radijas.
Kęstutis Budrys, Foreign Minister of Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“Of course, they need our solidarity very much so that they are not left alone to deal with a completely unprecedented and unjustified attack from Iran. They also need air defence systems. We can see that those that have them are operating very successfully, and hundreds of missile drones have been neutralised in the United Arab Emirates and other countries. We also understand that stocks are limited and that support will be needed here, and we will find ourselves in a situation where there will probably be pulled in two directions, needing to support Ukraine and to support countries that cannot defend themselves against Iran.”
With allies in the Gulf being attacked, the EU is being drawn into the conflict, like it or not. And Cyprus, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council, is one place that is clearly at risk.
On Monday, a drone strike hit a runway at the British RAF base in Akrotiri, prompting France, Greece and the UK to announce they would provide military support to Nicosia.
https://www.skai.gr/news/greece/apostellontai-stin-kypro-dyo-ellinikes-fregates-kai-dyo-f-16
This move is unlikely to do much for the already tense relations between Greece and Turkey in Cyprus, as Angelos Syrigos, associate professor of international law and foreign policy at the Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences tells our colleagues at Skai.
Angelos Syrigos, Associate Professor of International Law and Foreign Policy (in Greek):
“The overnight indefinite deployment of F-16s in Cyprus is something that has not happened since 1960. It is something that bothers the Turks, but they cannot easily express this because it is part of a broader dispute.”
On Tuesday, Iran warned European countries not to get involved in the conflict, as Radio Romania reports.
Impact on Ukraine
And of course another country likely to be impacted quite significantly by this latest turn of events is Ukraine, as EU high representative Kaja Kallas explained on Thursday.
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (in English):
“There is a clear impact on the war on Ukraine as well, because there are defence capabilities that are needed in Ukraine now moving to the Middle East. There is also the issue of supply change, of supplying the capabilities that Ukraine needs now, also the Middle East needs when it comes to air defence, for example.”
But MP Pavilionis suggests that Iran’s engagement in its own conflict could actually be of benefit to Ukraine.
Žygimantas Pavilionis, Member of the Lithuanian Parliament (in Lithuanian):
“The Russians have used [Iranian] technology to build various factories for these nasty weapons, but the support they had will definitely decrease, and every blow to Putin's allies in the war with Ukraine is definitely to our advantage.”
And in fact, Kallas points out that Ukraine’s experience can be put to good use here.
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (in English):
“We see actually the same drones that are attacking Kyiv every day now attacking also the Middle East. There, actually, Ukraine can help the Gulf countries because they have developed really [good] drone interceptors and drone protection. We can see also how we can put these things together to help these countries to fight back [against] the drone attacks.”
Indeed, she highlights that Kyiv is already providing considerable assistance to Europe’s Middle Eastern allies.
Other impacts
The scale of the impact of this latest crisis and its implications for inflation in the medium term depend largely on the extent and duration of the conflict. And we must anticipate the risks, even while hoping for a speedy resolution, says Martin Roger to Kuku Raadio.
Martin Roger, Estonian Undersecretary for Political Affairs (in Estonian):
“This war is wider than the territory of Iran. Today, we have seen that drones have already reached the vicinity of EU member states. Of course, our aim is that this conflict does not escalate further. But we must be aware of these dangers. We must also be aware of its wider economic impact, and what the impact of migration may be on us, Europe. There are quite a few of these risks.”
https://kuku.pleier.ee/uudised/iraani-konflikt-tahendab-euroopa-jaoks-palju-riske
On Tuesday, the leaders of the European Council, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the Eurogroup met to discuss the bloc’s economic situation, agreeing in particular to monitor energy prices and disruptions in maritime transport.
While Europe does not rely heavily on oil and gas from the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up energy prices. Around 3,000 ships pass through the strait each month, carrying around a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies towards Asia. While there is no physical blockade in place, Iranian threats and drone and missile attacks are keeping oil tankers from crossing the strait.
Gas prices have reached a record high since the start of 2023, following a harsh winter when reserves in Europe were at their lowest. A new surge in energy prices would put upward pressure on inflation, which would be detrimental to economic activity.
Romania has five months’ worth of fuel reserves, meaning that it is in a position to cope with any major supply crisis, the country’s energy minister Bogdan Ivan tells Radio Romania. And, he adds, higher prices on the stock exchanges triggered by the new Middle East war should not have a significant impact on Romanian consumers.
Bogdan Ivan, Romania’s Energy Minister (in Romanian):
“I see sensationalist headlines everywhere in the press saying that prices will double. Yes, prices doubled on the stock market yesterday, but in Romania we have taken measures to ensure that prices will not increase for our domestic consumers, at least until April 2027.”