_shutterstock_antony_matthews_films__xlarge.jpg "Armenia holds steady in its pro-European course")
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Armenia holds steady in its pro-European course
Armenians went to the polls last Sunday, appearing to thumb their noses at Moscow’s threats, intimidation and hybrid-warfare tactics by re-electing their pro-European prime minister for a third time.
Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party have been in power since leading the pro-democracy Velvet Revolution in 2018.
Russia up to its old tricks
Over the last eight years, Pashinyan has steered Armenia on a path of modernisation and democratisation, as well as pushing strongly for peaceful coexistence with the country’s historical enemy, Azerbaijan. He has gradually pulled further away from Russia and pursued more pronounced pro-Western policies, in particular deepening Yerevan’s partnership with the EU.
There were serious fears ahead of these elections that the Moscow-led influence operations that had taken place in Moldova prior to the elections there last autumn would play out in Armenia too. Money was poured into the campaigns of the three pro-Russian opposition candidates and disinformation was certainly rife, much of it targeted very precisely at Prime Minister Pashinyan himself.
In an interview with RTBF, Laetitia Spetschinsky, a specialist on Euro-Russian relations who lectures at Belgium’s UCLouvain, says that the pressure on the Armenian leader was virtually unprecedented.
Laetitia Spetschinsky, Expert on Euro-Russian relations (in French):
“We are seeing a range of methods being deployed covertly through operations involving not only disinformation, but what might be described as cyber-distortion of reality – in particular through the manoeuvres of the cells known as Storm-1516, which produce fake or deepfake content featuring false videos of Pashinyan. He is portrayed as a traitor to the nation, particularly in this fake video, for example, in which he downplays the Armenian Genocide – something that could obviously put him completely at odds with his own people.”
And she goes on.
Laetitia Spetschinsky, Expert on Euro-Russian relations (in French):
“Or he is portrayed as a traitor to the nation for having ceded territory to the Azerbaijanis; or as a corrupt politician, with allegations circulating widely online about the embezzlement of Russian funds; or as an anti-Christian, which is an extremely powerful narrative in Armenia too, given that Armenia is surrounded and hemmed in by two Muslim neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan, with whom it has had conflictual relations for centuries. These fake videos are disseminated by a bot network that has also been exposed and studied, notably by investigative journal The Insider, which has identified over 1,000 bot accounts that are spreading them exponentially.”
In addition, in the run-up to the election, Russian president Vladimir Putin openly stated, in a not-particularly-veiled threat, that Armenia was heading down the same path as Ukraine. He was clearly not only alluding to Ukraine’s European ambitions… but also to what came next.
Laetitia Spetschinsky, Expert on Euro-Russian relations (in French):
“This is a blatant threat to national security. They have also referred to import embargoes and restrictions on the movement of goods and people, which would cost Armenia around four billion dollars a year, given the close economic ties between Russia and Armenia. In short, we are seeing the full range of economic and existential threats being voiced in public by Russian political leaders.”
But despite this hybrid assault, and significant citizen disengagement, pro-European voters in Armenia came out in force. At nearly 60 per cent, turnout was much higher than in previous elections.
So how is Pashinyan convincing voters? Kuku Raadio puts this question to Piruza Harutyunyan, Armenia’s honorary consul in Estonia.
Piruza Harutyunyan, Armenian Honorary Consul in Estonia (in Estonian):
“His promise is that Armenia, a landlocked country, will become a regional crossroads that creates many opportunities and much more balance than Armenia has ever had before… and, as such, a better life for the people of Armenia. He also confirmed that he will continue with democratic reforms and wants to bring Armenia into line with European standards and regulations.”
New map, new future
One key polarising issue in Armenia was touched on in passing by Laetitia Spetschinsky: the ceding of territory to the Azerbaijanis. She was referring to the concessions the Pashinyan government has made to Azerbaijan in peace negotiations aimed at resolving the more than 30-year conflict over Nagorno‑Karabakh, a mountainous region inhabited by ethnic Armenians but recognised under international law as belonging to Azerbaijan. PM Pashinyan has taken the pragmatic, but politically risky, decision to recognise Azerbaijani sovereignty over this region.
A trilateral ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020 by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia brought a six-week war over the contested region to an end. The agreement involved territorial concessions on the part of Armenia, the unblocking of economic and transport links by Azerbaijan, and the deployment of a Russian peacekeeping contingent to secure transit.
However, it ultimately collapsed for a range of reasons: periodic military escalations; the failure of Russian peacekeepers to maintain a security buffer; a devastating ten-month Azerbaijani blockade of the region, which cut its ethic Armenian population off from Armenia – not to mention food and medical supplies; and a military offensive by Azerbaijan in 2023 that ultimately resulted in the mass exodus of the region's ethnic Armenians.
Nicolae Țibrigan is a research fellow at the Romanian Academy’s Institute of Political Science and International Relations. He tells Radio România that the collapse of this agreement was another factor in Pashinyan’s latest victory.
Nicolae Țibrigan, Research Fellow at the Romanian Academy (in Romanian):
“For many Armenians, Russia’s failure to protect Armenia in accordance with the treaty signed in 2020 has eroded the credibility of the Kremlin’s main message: that Russia is the sole guarantor of Armenia’s security. This is no longer the case, and this vote has demonstrated once again that Armenia is seeking to secure its own territory, with support from the West as well.”
At a Trump-led summit in Washington in August 2025, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan finally got behind a draft peace treaty. Indeed, peace dividends have now started to be felt in both countries – dividends including the beginning of bilateral trade… and the fact that 2025 was the first year since Armenia’s independence in 1991 that there were no casualties at this border.
Yet challenges remain for Pashinyan, who has held on to a parliamentary majority, but failed to secure the supermajority needed to amend the constitution to remove implied territorial claims to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Without this step, a definitive peace agreement with Azerbaijan is impossible, explains Piruza Harutyunyan, Armenia’s honorary consul in Estonia.
Piruza Harutyunyan, Armenian Honorary Consul in Estonia (in Estonian):
“The peace agreement has not yet been signed, and one of the criteria or requirements remains the revision of Armenia’s constitution, which indirectly refers to the territory of Karabakh as part of Armenia. And although Armenia says that amending the constitution is a natural process that the country should undertake, the referendum will not take place before next year. Azerbaijan is using this as a pretext to avoid signing the peace agreement. And similarly, Turkey is under pressure not to open its borders either, even though this is already starting to happen.”
Laetitia Spetschinsky believes that improving relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey is critical for Armenia’s future.
Laetitia Spetschinsky, Expert on Euro-Russian relations (in French):
“This new future precisely entails making peace with its two neighbours, namely Azerbaijan and Turkey, to forge a new destiny for Armenia as a bridge or point of contact between East and West. This would mean the creation of a new trade route, running from the Caspian Sea to Europe via Azerbaijan and Turkey, and Armenia would be a linchpin of this new commercial momentum.”
Yet, according to Nicolae Țibrigan, striking the right balance with Armenia’s various neighbours is not a given.
Nicolae Țibrigan, Research Fellow at the Romanian Academy (in Romanian):
“From now on, Pashinyan’s task will be even more complicated, because he will have to somehow strike a balance between the two countries with which Armenia has had relations marked by hostility and even war. I am referring to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan’s ally, Turkey.”
Ties with Europe
And what of Armenia’s near neighbours in the EU? They may be slightly more distant, but they are a key part of the puzzle nonetheless, given the direction of travel of fellow Eastern Partnership states Ukraine and Moldova.
Lithuanian MEP Dainius Žalimas, a member of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, spoke to Žinių Radijas in the run up to Sunday’s election about Moscow’s obvious desire to exert its influence on Armenian voters. He underlined how important it was to keep Armenia looking west.
Dainius Žalimas, Member of the European Parliament – Renew Europe, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“If Armenia clearly expresses its support for a pro-European course in this election, the EU must cooperate in every possible way. First and foremost, by winning the hearts and minds of Armenian citizens – winning them over to our side. The EU should not remain indifferent as there is a struggle for European values taking place right on the EU’s periphery – be it in Ukraine, Moldova or the Caucasus.”
Piruza Harutyunyan congratulates Brussels for following this advice.
Piruza Harutyunyan, Armenian Honorary Consul in Estonia (in Estonian):
“I am pleased that the EU’s response was swift. Discussions are now underway to, for example, exempt Armenia from third-country tariffs, which would create better opportunities for Armenian goods to enter EU countries. And Armenian businesspeople have started to think about how to diversify their customer base.”
The EU is already supporting Pashinyan’s plans to help the country overcome its landlocked status thanks to a major regional connectivity partnership including transport, digital corridors and energy security. The 270-million-euro plan for the 2024-2027 period aims to leverage investments in connectivity, resilience and business development.
And finally, the first-ever EU-Armenia summit was held, in Yerevan, on 5 May. It reaffirmed both parties' commitment to the EU-Armenia Strategic Agenda adopted in December, which significantly broadens cooperation and puts an increased focus on security.