_shutterstock_anelo__xlarge.jpg "Drone distress in the Baltics")
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Drone distress in the Baltics
Tensions are running high in the three Baltic states following an escalation of drone incursions in their airspace. These have become a daily occurrence.
With Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian radio stations in the Euranet Plus network, we have asked our colleagues for some insight into recent events.
Foul play?
The recent drone scares in the Baltics stem from Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian oil and military targets. Some of these Ukrainian drones have been veering from their flight path and causing panic in NATO airspace.
In the latest and most serious incident at the time of writing, on Wednesday (20 May) the Lithuanian capital Vilnius received a severe air alert due to unidentified drone activity, forcing lawmakers and residents to run for cover. This has never happened before and caused considerable panic, with everyone trying to access shelters, some of which were locked. In addition, a yellow alert was received in the south of Lithuania, not far from the border with Belarus.
A few days prior, there had been unconfirmed reports of a drone in Lithuanian airspace on Sunday morning. The drone was only found that evening... and not by the Lithuanian military, but by a man cutting his grass! And it wasn’t until the next day that the explosives were found and neutralised.
Last week, the Lithuanian president had made a seemingly out-of-the-blue statement that Lithuania would never let a foreign power use its airspace to launch an attack on a third country. On Tuesday, the president’s chief security advisor Deividas Matulionis explained the rationale for this statement to our colleagues at Žinių Radijas.
Deividas Matulionis, Chief National Security Advisor to the President (in Lithuanian):
“First and foremost, this message was directed at Russia, because we see that the more time passes, the more attempts are being made to ramp up the narrative that the Baltic states have legally granted Ukraine the right to fly their drones into Russian territory [from the Baltics]. This is absurd, and in such an environment, very serious provocations against us are possible. We had to make it very clear that we are protecting our sovereignty and our territory, and that we are not directly involved in military operations, even though we support Ukraine and will continue to do so – that remains one of our key objectives.”
While the Kremlin is casting these wayward drone incursions as evidence that the Baltic states are intentionally allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks, the speaker of the Seimas, former MEP Juozas Olekas, told a press conference on Tuesday that Moscow may itself have a hand in them.
Juozas Olekas, Speaker of the Seimas (in Lithuanian):
“We know this ourselves, and we’ve discussed it with the Ukrainians: the Russians may be capable of diverting one or two drones from a swarm towards us. We also cannot rule out the possibility that they might try to mimic and launch some of their own. All kinds of provocations are possible. We need to be prepared for that and not panic.”
Next door in Latvia, two stray drones caused damage to an oil storage facility a full two weeks ago.
Speaking to journalists on Wednesday, Latvian president Edgars Rinkēvičs highlighted that all three Baltic states were facing very similar challenges and urged everyone to keep a cool head.
Edgars Rinkēvičs, President of Latvia (in Latvian):
“Russia is trying to intimidate us with its claim that Latvia has allegedly allowed Ukraine to use its territory or airspace to launch strikes. These are categorical lies. They are lies. First, to create a certain degree of international distrust towards our country, then to justify Russia’s military failures in the eyes of its own public, and also, of course, to sow doubt among our allies as well. We are living in a new reality where such attempts will occur, especially during this turbulent period both internationally and domestically. This is not a time of peace, but it is not a time of war either. This is, unfortunately, a very tense time, in which the government can only work calmly, responsibly, and without unnecessary emotion.”
Rinkēvičs underscored that there was a fine line between issuing warnings early enough for people to take action and alarming people and disrupting public transport, businesses and schools unnecessarily. With this in mind, he said, they would be ‘reviewing the algorithms’.
NATO on the naughty step?
A high-profile supporter of Ukraine in Lithuania, Jonas Oehman, who co-founded the NGO Blue/Yellow and has raised significant funds to support the Ukrainian war effort, gave an interview to Žinių on Monday. He firmly believes that NATO is to blame for the fact that we still aren’t taking drones seriously.
Jonas Oehman, Founder of Blue/Yellow (in Lithuanian):
“In 2023, civil society bought radars, then from Israel, to protect Ukraine from drones. In 2023! Basically, that was a clear sign of what’s needed now. And only now we are talking about buying radars and stuff like that… I’m going to speak a little harshly now. When this war has been going on for such a long time, seemingly neverendingly – how can we not have understood? We raised 14 million euros for this. Did anyone react? No, there’s no point, this is for Ukraine, somewhere far away... Let me be blunt. NATO, as a structure, is ineffective. It doesn’t work. [...] I think some people in NATO should consider stepping down. They are not up to the task.”
The 2023 initiative he is referring to is Radarom!, a massive annual crowdfunding campaign to support Ukraine’s military effort. That year, the campaign raised 14 million euros specifically to buy radar systems for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in nearby Estonia, Tuesday saw the shooting down of a suspected Ukrainian drone that had ended up in Estonian airspace by a Romanian fighter jet belonging to NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission. The last time a foreign aircraft was shot down over Estonia was during World War II, says Kuku Raadio, which makes this quite a big deal.
The good news, according to Estonia’s prime minister Kristen Michal, is that the incident proves that NATO systems do, in fact, work.
Kristen Michal, Prime Minister of Estonia (in Estonian):
“I think we can draw several conclusions from this. Firstly, NATO’s military side – the chain of command – works well in practice. Many people are questioning whether NATO actually works. It certainly does! There are NATO ships at sea guarding critical infrastructure, and NATO aircraft in the skies ready to deploy when needed. They have also used drones. But the decision to shoot something down is made on a case-by-case basis, because it is not possible everywhere.”
Political fallout
As suggested previously, it is strongly believed that Russian electronic warfare – for example, jamming and GPS spoofing – is disrupting Ukrainian drones, causing them to drift off course and breach NATO airspace in the Baltic states, most likely to foster a climate of insecurity and political instability.
That is certainly the effect that the drone incursions have had in Latvia, where they appear to have brought about the resignation of the defence minister and, subsequently, the collapse of the government. Or at least, that is the narrative playing out in the international media.
Yet our ears on the ground in Latvia suggest that the drones were just a pretext for the centre-right PM to fire the Green defence minister in what constituted a clear pre-election move. A move she miscalculated as the Greens decided they would do better by staying in opposition until the autumn and left the government.
Latvijas Radio asks former president Egils Levits just how much of a part the drones really played in this latest piece of political drama.
Egils Levits, Former President of Latvia (in Latvian):
“The fact that drones flew into Latvian territory and our response was, I would say, somewhat lacklustre does not inspire confidence in the government. [Prime minister] Siliņa then chose to get rid of the defence minister. After that, of course, it was only to be expected that the Progressives would refuse to remain part of such a government, meaning that the government no longer had a majority. And again, it was then logical for Siliņa to resign. I do, however, object to the notion that this is some kind of special, unprecedented situation in a parliamentary democracy. Government crises – that is, the resignation of a government and the collapse and reconstitution of a coalition – are a pretty normal occurrence.”
This said, if Russia is behind these errant drones, and their aim is to promote instability, Moscow will take the ructions in Riga as a win.
Calls for action
It is not surprising, though, that people in the Baltics have the jitters. Their political representatives are actively pressing the EU and NATO to establish tighter counter-drone measures along the eastern flank of the Union, a flank that, in Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s own words, “keeps all of Europe safe”.
In February this year, the EU presented a communication on its eastern regions. The bloc’s policy prioritises immediate defence readiness and resilience against hybrid threats.
Brussels also aims to establish a comprehensive security architecture that reduces reliance on external allies, through initiatives such as the ‘Eastern Flank Watch’ project, which seeks to reinforce the bloc’s eastern borders against cyber, maritime and conventional threats through integrated air defences, electronic warfare, and surveillance. The Eastern Flank Watch is also closely linked with other pan-European security systems, namely the European Drone Defence Initiative, the European Air Shield and the European Space Shield.
In the meantime, though, 15 Baltic MEPs wrote to VDL on Wednesday asking her to “publicly and firmly reject Russia’s baseless allegations on behalf of the EU and demand that Russia stop these provocative actions immediately”. In response, President von der Leyen did not mince her words in a post on X, saying: “Russia and Belarus bear direct responsibility for [the] drones endangering the lives and security of people on our Eastern flank. Europe will respond with unity and strength.”